Uncertainty reigns as stage is set for WTO talks this week

The stage is set for a week or more of intense negotiations at the WTO as Ministers of some 40 to 50 countries are expected to arrive in Geneva in an effort to boost the flagging Doha negotiations.

But on Friday evening (23 June), it was uncertain what will come out of this crucial period, in terms of both process and substance.

In the corridors, members were exchanging news and rumours on which countries were being invited (and not invited) to the "Green Room" of some 30 Ministers that is expected to be convened by the Director General Pascal Lamy on 29 June.

The Green Room will run for some days - no one knows exactly how long. Parallel to it will be a series of informal meetings of the Trade Negotiations Committee, which can be attended by all delegations. Ministers and officials not invited to the Green Room can give their views there.

On Saturday 1 July morning, a formal meeting of the TNC is scheduled to start. It may go on for another day or two, depending on circumstances.

The key circumstance, according to trade diplomats, is whether the Green Room meeting goes on well, whether there is "new movement", especially by the major members the United States and the European Union, and whether there is any hope of agreement on the "modalities."

The mood ranges from pessimism (there are too many areas of contention and too short a time to bridge the gaps) to optimism (the EU and US are finally signaling ability to improve their offers, even if a little).

The sense that this is going to be an uphill battle was reinforced on 22 June when the chairs of the agriculture and NAMA negotiations issued their draft modalities papers. The agriculture paper had 760 square brackets, demonstrating lack of agreement on major and minor issues. In the NAMA paper, the Chair said he could not give texts or even suggestions on some key areas as the divisions were too deep.

At a press conference on 22 June night, Crawford Falconer, chair of the agriculture negotiations, and Don Stephenson, chair of the NAMA negotiating group, were asked how optimistic they were for an outcome in the following week.

"An awful lot remains for Ministers to do but I am optimistic they'll address them seriously," said Stephenson, diplomatically.

"I long ago stopped being optimistic or pessimistic," said Falconer, who was more direct. "Will there be serious engagement? Will there be the political will to make political decisions? The evidence is we are in a difficult situation. Things always look bleak when problems can actually be resolved.