Lamy Considers Imitating Predecessor's 'Nuclear Option' To Spur Doha Talks

GENEVA - Shortly before Arthur Dunkel, the world's top trade official for more than a decade, died last June, soon-to-be World Trade Organization chief Pascal Lamy went to visit him. Mr. Lamy wanted to ask about the nuclear option of world-trade diplomacy, known as a 'Dunkel draft.'

As in Mr. Dunkel's day, Mr. Lamy is trying to drive through a global deal to cut trade tariffs and is making little headway. Trade ministers could even decide this week that it isn't worth trying to meet an end-of-April deadline to produce an outline agreement in the so-called Doha round of trade talks, and call off a meeting scheduled for later in the month.

A deal would be worth up to $100 billion to the global economy, according to a World Bank estimate. But it would require the U.S., European Union, Brazil, India and others to accept fresh cuts in protections for their most sensitive industries. With few signs of that happening, pressure is building on Mr. Lamy to break the impasse.

In 1991, Mr. Dunkel effectively broke the logjam in previous trade talks, known as the Uruguay Round, by deciding to bypass diplomats, break protocol and draft the text of an agreement on his own. He was attacked for the move, but a deal ultimately was struck. Mr. Dunkel's draft is now seen as a turning point in those negotiations.

Interviewed in his office overlooking Lake Geneva last week, Mr. Lamy says it is still too early for a move that should be kept for 'a last-gasp' effort. But he is clearly mulling the option. '[Dunkel's] advice was that you do that once in your life and preferably after 12 years in your position rather than after six months,' said Mr. Lamy. 'It's something that's very dangerous. It's an extreme step.'

By producing a draft, Mr. Lamy could force nations to reject an entire trade deal if they feel he is asking too much from them. That could undermine his credibility with WTO members and make it all but impossible to resume his normal role as trusted deal broker.

Still, Mr. Lamy may not have all that much time left. While the trade ministers' April deadline was self-imposed, many diplomats believe they need to strike the outlines of a deal by the end of July. That would leave just enough time to crunch the final numbers and allow the White House to usher the pact through Congress before President Bush's fast-track trade powers expire in July 2007. After that, Congress would be able to pick any deal apart.

'He's going to have to use some of his political capital to help us help ourselves,' said Bruce Gosper, Australia's ambassador to the WTO. 'You don't want to mistime it. If it's done at the wrong time, it will be wasted, and we will miss our opportunity.'

Mr. Lamy, a French Socialist who took the job eight months ago, has a lot riding on the outcome. Since 1995, when the WTO replaced the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade -- the group that Mr. Dunkel once headed -- it has made scant progress in cutting global tariffs. A collapse of the Doha round would likely trigger a rush to strike bilateral trade deals, scaling back the role of the WTO as a place to negotiate trade.

Since moving to Geneva from Brussels, where he was the EU's top trade negotiator, Mr. Lamy has taken to wearing a bright red ski parka over his suits and an Indiana Jones-style hat. He has reinvented the top job at the WTO with an energetic style that has impressed many, but irritated at least one trade minister.

Mr. Lamy and Peter Mandelson, who succeeded the Frenchman as the EU's trade commissioner, have mixed it up in recent negotiating sessions. At a Hong Kong meeting, Mr. Mandelson snapped at Mr. Lamy when it appeared to him that the WTO chief was speaking on behalf of the EU. 'You had your time, you are not the commissioner anymore,' said Mr. Mandelson, according to people who were there. Asked about the exchange, Mr. Lamy said, 'I don't remember.' Mr. Mandelson's office declined to comment.

Mr. Lamy is the first WTO director-general to have a computer on his desk and, to the surprise of some members of the WTO staff, began answering his own email shortly after taking office. 'He thinks about strategy, he's very organized and has a structured mentality,' said the U.S. ambassador to the WTO, Peter Allgeier.

It was largely Mr. Lamy's decision last fall to lower ambitions for a meeting of the world's trade ministers in Hong Kong, a strategic retreat that many diplomats credit for preventing the gathering from failing to accomplish anything at all. He kept diplomats focused on two clear goals of setting a date to end export subsidies on farm products and providing the world's least-developed countries more access to rich nations' markets.

Mr. Lamy, a marathon runner, estimates he slept a total of seven hours during the five-day meeting, sustaining himself on brown bread and bananas. 'He simply ran everyone into the ground; it was a physical contest that he won,' said one trade diplomat.

In Hong Kong late last year, antiglobalization protesters surrounded Mr. Lamy's car as he left a speech, pounding on the hood and demanding that he read a petition against global trade. To their surprise, the Frenchman got out of the car to look at the petition and asked the protesters if they had any questions.

For all his energy, though, it is far from clear whether Mr. Lamy can make a success of Doha. The top job at the WTO carries few formal powers, relying on persuasion and cajoling to broker a deal. 'Cooking with 150 cooks, who are making 25 dishes, which they have been re-cooking for 50 years, is complex,' said Mr. Lamy.