Democratic Sweep in U.S. Congress and the Doha Round: Will agriculture be gridlocked?

Many experts around the world have sought to predict the future of international trade after the collapse of talks at the WTO in July 2006. Even as governments have met in Geneva, Brazil, Australia and Vietnam, they are unable to overcome differences to salvage the Doha Agenda, launched in 2001.

Activists, government officials and journalists pinpointed the U.S. elections in November as a moment for a potential shift in this impasse that could steer the government in a new trading direction. The U.S. trade position at the WTO, particularly its agriculture proposal, has been under fire for not going far enough in reducing trade-distorting domestic support, for limiting special safeguards for developing countries and for its own aggressive agenda to increase market access in the Global South.

In November, the U.S. mid-term elections resulted in a major shift in the Congress. Most notably, the Democrats now control both the House of Representatives and the Senate, and are much more likely to challenge the U.S. Trade Representative. The result will have major implications for the Farm Bill in 2007, a potential renewal of Fast Track (Trade Promotion Authority) in July 2007 and the possible resumption of talks at the WTO. In each case, the new Democraticled Congress will bring a new perspective, focused much less on furthering trade liberalization at all costs. For a number of reasons the elections signal a major blow to the Doha Agenda.

In terms of the Farm Bill, the new chair of the House of Representatives Agriculture Committee, Colin Peterson of Minnesota, has stated that